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On the Way to Equilibrium? 1st Half of 2019 Market Update

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How's the Market?

 

As a realtor, I get asked the same question every day.  "How's the market?"  Locally in the South Bay, the general opinion around town is that we are in another housing bubble.  "It's gotten crazy and there's no way it can keep going up like this, right?!  All markets are cyclical." 

 

If you listen to economists that focus on the housing market, they disagree.  They point to both continued record-low unemployment and interest rates with the past few years of stringent lending requirements as well as the climbing stock market as evidence that the market will remain strong in California in the near term. 

 

The way I answer this question is by understanding where someone lives or is interested in within South Bay.  This chart will help articulate why:

Looking at the absorption rate [the inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months] tells us a lot about our market.  Currently in the Manhattan Beach Sand Section we have a relative gluttony of inventory - 8 months, whereas a 5 minute drive down Manhattan Beach Blvd in either East Manhattan Beach or North Redondo Beach, we have just over 1 month of inventory - absolute scarcity.  The Manhattan Beach Tree Section is up in inventory from 2-3 years ago, but has remained relatively stead with 3.5 - 4 months of inventory in the past 1.5 years.

 

One might then wonder how the inventory in these neighborhoods is impacting sales price, and if we are seeing any softening or even reversal.  It may be too soon to tell:

There are more complexities within this data... condition, age and the actual lot of your home being important factors for value.

 

If you are curious about what the market is doing in your South Bay neighborhood, I'd love to run some numbers for you.  Call me today.  -Liz  310.975.4760

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