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Market Update: Summer 2018

The most common question I get asked is by far "How's the market?".   Instead of listening to realtor hyperbole, let's examine at what the data tells us comparing the last 12 months to previous year's last 12 months (Jul-Jun).

 

Let's start with something as benign as Days on Market, 'DOM'.  Many people suggest inventory is sitting longer.  From the statistics, they tell us that's more like wishful thinking.... that inventory is factually not getting stale. 

 

To the left are the most current DOM for Manhattan, Hermosa and Redondo (South + North) Beach cities.  The average Manhattan Beach home is on the market only 21 days.  Hermosa and S. Redondo homes are on only 16 days.  And N. Redondo... 9 days.  These are exceptionally strong numbers demonstrating the continued supply constraints and demand for our South Bay market.

 

The next statistics I consider when I'm evaluating our market's current status are number of Closed Sales, Pending Sales, New Listings and Active Listings.

 

                     CLOSED SALES                                                      PENDING SALES

         

                   NEW LISTINGS                                                          ACTIVE LISTINGS

 

Upon observation of the closed sales and listings activity above, there are some obvious consumption trends.  Transaction volume is down.  Why?  I would suggest [per the data] the cause is the continued lack of inventory  - there aren't enough homes to meet demand.  When you look at any of these cities, for example Manhattan Beach, while both closed and pending sales are down 9-10%, new listings are down 12% and active listings are down 11%.  In the last year in North Redondo, an average of 41 homes closed per month, and there are only 46 active listings on the market today.... a ONE MONTH supply.  Out of all Beach Cities, Hermosa is the most 'flush' with a 3.5 month supply.  That means for every home that closes, a Buyer theoretically has a choice to purchase 1 of every 3.5 homes they see.  Sounds like a "sellers market" to me.  Which brings me to then the next statistics I want to see... how much are Buyers willing to pay for purchases - are our prices still going up?

 

                   MEDIAN PRICE                                                        AVERAGE PRICE

 

The bottom line I would suggest is our market is still very, very healthy.  Rates are still very favorable.  Businesses continue to invest in feeder markets of El Segundo, Hawthorne, Torrance and surrounding areas at a fast clip.  Median prices are up overall and average prices even stronger, demonstrating that people on the upper end of each market are confidently valuing their purchases.  

 

Every neighborhood and home has it's own unique micro-climate of variables impacting individual value.  Please let me know what I can further share with you regarding health of our market or in contemplation of your next move.  

 

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