How's the Market? Early Spring 2019 Update
As we move into Spring market, we start to get a pulse on activity with a few weeks of retrospection on how 2019 is shaping. I prefer to use a rolling twelve months to measure each data point, so that a single month's trend doesn't convolute the larger picture.
Reflecting on Inventory levels compared to prior 5 years, we have seen an increase across the board since fall 2018. Hermosa is the only beach city that has actually surpassed it's five year peak so far this year, but there is an obvious trend. With North Redondo still showing tighest levels, 1.75 months, Manhattan Beach is showing just over 3 months and Hermosa close to 4 months. A "Seller's Market" is considered less than 5 months of inventory, so it will be interesting to see how many more listings come out in the next few weeks and how many close in that time as the Spring market hits it's peak.
Closed Sales or transaction volume is off peak anywhere from 6% (S. RB) to 18% (N. RB). As more inventory comes out, and fewer homes close, inventory levels will rise.
Surprisingly, Days on Market has been at its lowest count in five years over the last year. We are still showing a very quick consumption rate, on average around 2-3 weeks per listing.
Possible causation: our strong jobs market of our surrounding cities, with phenomenal commercial tax incentives in El Segundo, is drawing many businesses south from Silicon Beach, with large spaces available for tech companies to expand. In Inglewood, the development of the old Hollywood Park site in Inglewood is bringing the NFL Headquarters, the Rams and their new stadium, as well as the LA Clippers and all of their high-paying jobs to our region of Los Angeles. This complex doesn't actually open until 2020, so the executive salaries have not actually moved to our area yet. Good news upcoming for local homeowners. More good news for 2019: interest rates remain low; and are actually at their lowest levels in over a year, spurring continued activity at all price ranges, especially low to mid-tiers.
Short answer to 'How's the Market So Far?': Sellers market with softening. Watch for an upcoming post of record sales selling quickly and with multiple offers.